Introduction
History shows that societies don’t march forward in a straight line—they cycle through growth, rigidity, collapse, and renewal. The question isn’t whether these shifts will happen, but whether we stumble through them blindly or face them with open eyes. That’s where two powerful frameworks come in. Panarchy helps us understand the deep, underlying processes that drive societal change, while the Cynefin framework gives us tools to navigate those shifts from a decision-making perspective. Together, they reveal patterns in what often feels like chaos, showing us that disruption is not simply destruction—it’s also the opening for renewal.
The future isn’t written. It’s shaped in how we respond when the old order gives way to the new. By recognizing the cycles we’re part of and making wiser choices within them, we can wrestle opportunity from destruction.
Chaos Is Inevitable
I was struck recently by just how much of a complex adaptive system human society really is. Complexity surrounds us every day—but not all day. Think about having a quiet dinner with your family. Conversation may grow animated, but there’s still a degree of order. Now expand that image: you’re in a busy restaurant, dozens of tables, everyone talking at once. You can manage your own table, but you can’t control the others.
Take another step: imagine a sports arena packed with thousands of cheering fans. Any attempt to structure the crowd is futile—though at least you can still see it. Now zoom farther out, into space, looking at the whole Earth. Millions of dinners, games, concerts, car accidents, meetings—all happening simultaneously. At this scale, order disappears entirely. You can’t see everything, let alone control it. The only word that fits is chaos. That, in fact, helps explain the Fermi Paradox.[i]
This isn’t surprising. Anthropologist Robin Dunbar argued that humans have a neurophysiological limit to how many close relationships we can maintain.[ii] Beyond about 200 people—the “Dunbar Number”—communication breaks down and uncertainty rises.
Adding Order to Chaos Is Unachievable
And here’s the pickle: more than six billion people each live according to their own personal world timeline. Global consensus on any topic, even simple ones, is essentially impossible. But what we can do is try to understand what’s happening. With that knowledge, maybe—just maybe—we can nudge the arc of chaos in a better direction.
Two models from different domains may help us:
- The Cynefin framework (David Snowden—not that Snowden), which helps organizations make decisions from a sense of place.[iii]
- The Panarchy concept (Lance Gunderson and C.S. Holling)[iv], originally developed to describe the stages the forest turnover cycle.
The Cynefin Framework
When applied to societies:
- Early tribes operated in the Clear domain, guided by shared rules.
- Empires and states embodied the Complicated domain, where expertise and governance structured systems.
- Industrialization pushed societies into the Complex domain, marked by unpredictability and emergent change.
- Today, globalization, pandemics, and climate change often push us into Chaotic conditions where order collapses.
Panarchy
Panarchy describes adaptive cycles with four phases:
- Exploitation (r): rapid growth and resource use
- Conservation (K): efficiency and stability, but also rigidity
- Release (Ω): collapse and breakdown
- Reorganization (α): renewal and innovation
These cycles unfold at multiple, nested scales—local, regional, global—and interact across levels.
History offers examples: the Roman Empire’s vast bureaucracy represents the Conservation phase. Its collapse reflects Release. The Middle Ages and Renaissance illustrate Reorganization. Renewal always follows breakdown.
Panarchy and Cynefin Together
Think of Panarchy as the process—the natural cycles of growth, rigidity, collapse, and renewal. Cynefin is the lens—helping us recognize whether a given moment feels clear, complicated, complex, or chaotic, and guiding how to act.
This matters because it shows collapse isn’t an endpoint. It’s part of the cycle. Recognizing where we are—whether in conservation, release, or renewal—helps us adapt.
In practice:
- Complex / Reorganization: experiment and innovate (e.g., green energy transitions).
- Chaotic / Release: act fast to stabilize (e.g., pandemic responses).
- Complicated / Conservation: rely on expertise, but beware rigidity that creates fragility.
Conclusion
By combining Panarchy’s cyclical lens with Cynefin’s sensemaking approach, we gain a richer understanding of where society stands, why crises emerge, and how to build resilience for the future. Collapse is not the end. It is the opening act for renewal.
[i] Hart, M. H. (1975). An explanation for the absence of extraterrestrials on Earth. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 16, 128–135.
[ii] Dunbar, R. I. M. (1992). Neocortex size as a constraint on group size in primates. Journal of Human Evolution, 22(6), 469–493. https://doi.org/10.1016/0047-2484(92)90081-J
[iii] Snowden, D. J. (2002). Complex acts of knowing: Paradox and descriptive self-awareness. Journal of Knowledge Management, 6(2), 100–111. https://doi.org/10.1108/13673270210424639
[iv] Gunderson, L. H., & Holling, C. S. (Eds.). (2002). Panarchy: Understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Washington, DC: Island Press.
Confronting Mediocrity 